Stay or Evacuate? The 80-Point Decision Matrix

The Two Most Dangerous Phrases

"We'll stay for now. If things get really bad, we'll leave then."

"It's safer at home. There's no need to go anywhere."

Both phrases share one structure: postponement. And postponing a decision in a collapse is itself a decision — with documented consequences. In Mariupol in 2022, those who evacuated in the first 3 days got out on open roads. Those who waited 10 days found the city encircled. The decision to stay or go must be made while you still have a real choice.

The Four Blocks (80 Points Total)

The decision is not an emotion. It is a calculation across four domains, each scored from 1 to 20.

Block 1 — Shelter Safety (max 20 pts)

• Physical threat (war, disaster, fire): none = 5, possible = 3, direct = 1
• Structural integrity: solid = 5, cracks but standing = 3, damaged = 1
• Defensibility: can lock/barricade = 5, partial = 3, cannot = 1
• Social environment: friendly neighbours = 5, neutral = 3, aggressive = 1

Block 2 — Supplies (max 20 pts)

• Food: 14+ days = 5, 7–14 days = 3, under 7 days = 1
• Water: same scale
• Medication (chronic conditions): 30+ days = 5, 14–30 = 3, under 14 = 1
• Resupply possibility: easy = 5, difficult = 3, impossible = 1

Block 3 — People (max 20 pts)

• Physical capability: all healthy = 5, elderly/children but mobile = 3, bedridden = 1
• Psychological stability: all stable = 5, some panic but manageable = 3, mass panic = 1
• Group size: 2–4 people (optimal) = 5, 5–7 = 3, alone or 8+ = 1

Block 4 — Evacuation Route (max 20 pts)

• Destination: specific place (relatives, country house) = 5, rough idea = 3, no plan = 1
• Distance: under 50 km = 5, 50–150 km = 3, over 150 km = 1
• Road conditions: passable = 5, congested but moving = 3, blocked = 1
• Transport: car + fuel = 5, car with limited fuel = 3, no car = 1

Reading Your Score

• 60–80: Stay. Shelter is safe, supplies adequate, group stable.
• 40–59: Gray zone. Prepare for both. Fortify and pack simultaneously.
• 20–39: Go. Evacuation is the safer option — act while the window is open.
• Under 20: Critical. Staying is fatal, leaving is nearly impossible. Find any way out.

Reassess Every 12–24 Hours

If your shelter safety has worsened, if supplies have dropped to under 3 days, if roads have deteriorated, or if an official evacuation order has been issued — score again. The correct decision at hour 6 may be the wrong decision at hour 36. Reassessment is not indecision; it is correct calibration.

The Gray Zone rule: do everything simultaneously. Fortify the shelter AND pack the Bug-Out Bag. If the decision later turns out to be "stay" — you have only lost a few hours of packing. If it is "go" — your bag is already ready.