The household resilience baseline — five questions that summarize where you actually stand

The five questions

After three months of briefings on Atlantic hurricanes, Western wildfires, Texas grid stress, tornado shelters, blackout patterns, wildfire smoke, and Labor Day resets — the picture for any US household reduces to five questions. The answers describe where you actually stand. Whether they reassure or sober you is what matters; the questions themselves do not change.

Question 1 — Water

If your municipal water supply stopped today, how many days could every member of your household drink, cook, and maintain basic hygiene?

• 0-1 day: Most US households. Action required: buy 5-gallon drinking water jugs at any grocery store this weekend. 1 gallon per person per day × 7 days × household size.
• 2-3 days: Partial preparedness. Action: top up to 7 days.
• 7+ days: Solid baseline. Maintain rotation.

Question 2 — Food

If retail food supply was disrupted (storm closes stores, transport shock, or supply chain event), how many days of food do you have at home that requires no fridge, no oven, no preparation?

• 0-2 days: Common. Action: shelf-stable food (canned, peanut butter, dried, crackers, energy bars) for 7 days per household member. ~$60-100 one-time, rotated annually.
• 3-6 days: Useful but not robust.
• 7+ days: Strong baseline.

Question 3 — Power

If the grid was out for 72 hours starting today, what would change for your household?

• No backup capacity at all: Common. Action: 20,000 mAh power bank ($25-40), basic flashlight + extra batteries ($15), candles + matches ($10). Total: ~$60. Covers communication and basic light.
• Battery and lighting only: Sufficient for short outages.
• Generator + fuel reserve: Strong baseline for medical equipment or extended outages.

Question 4 — Information

If cell networks were intermittent or unavailable, how would you receive weather warnings, emergency alerts, and household communication?

• Only smartphone: Common. Action: $30 NOAA Weather Radio + battery-powered emergency radio. Pre-program county codes. Test monthly.
• Multiple devices: Solid.
• Family communication protocol with out-of-state contact: Strong.

Question 5 — Decision

If a major weather event was forecast to affect your area in 72 hours, do you have a pre-decided stay-or-go threshold?

• No, would decide in the moment: Common. Action: pre-decide your trigger conditions (Cat threshold for hurricane, AQI threshold for wildfire smoke, NWS warning threshold). Write them on a single card. Share with household.
• Pre-decided thresholds: Strong baseline.
• Pre-decided + practiced evacuation route: Comprehensive.

What the answers say

If you have 4-5 strong answers: you are in the more prepared minority of US households. You handle a typical disruption as inconvenience.

If you have 2-3 strong answers: you are in the median range. You handle most disruptions but are exposed to the unusual ones.

If you have 0-1 strong answers: you are in the lower half of US households. This is not a moral failure; it is the average. The actions above are designed to move from 0-1 to 3-4 with approximately $200 of supplies and one weekend.

What this is not

This is not advice to panic-buy or to fixate on threats. The vast majority of US households navigate the coming year without major incident. The five questions are designed to convert "should I prepare?" into "what specifically do I lack?" — and answer in a way that makes the next $200 of household spending productive instead of incremental.

The most underprepared household in America does well in most years too. The well-prepared household does well in nearly all years. The difference is not catastrophic readiness; it is calm. The well-prepared household sleeps through a storm warning that the underprepared household panics through.

One thing this week: answer the five questions honestly. Pick the weakest one. Address it this Saturday. Move to the next next weekend. In a quarter, your readiness has shifted measurably without your daily life changing at all.

— Systems Fail Lab